ESCAPING POVERTY AND BECOMING POOR: WHO GAINS, WHO LOSES, AND WHY? Accounting for Stability and Change in 35 North Indian Villages

Overall economic trends have very different effects on different households, this study of 35 north Indian villages shows. Members of 11 percent of 6,376 households in these villages have overcome poverty in the last 25 years, but members of another 8 percent have fallen into poverty at the same time. One set of factors is associated with households’ escape from poverty, but another and different set is associated with households’ decline. Two distinct sets of policies are required thus – one set to promote escape from poverty and another set to arrest decline. Poverty has some distinctly local antecedents, it is seen. A methodology for tracking changes in poverty at the local level is developed that community groups and others can use to assess change and examine causes. I should like to thank Harry Blair, Hans Blomkvist, Philip Cook, David Hulme, Milton Esman, Ron Herring, Mary Katzenstein, Helen Ladd, Francis Lethem, Elinor Ostrom, George Rosen, T. N. Srinivasan, Judith Tendler, Meenu Tewari, and Norman Uphoff for comments and helpful advice. Seminar participants at Duke University, Manchester University (UK), Syracuse University, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Uppsala University (Sweden), and Yale University helped sharpen the arguments further. None among these individuals and organizations is responsible for any errors and omissions. Financial support received from various sources at Duke University is gratefully acknowledged.